This is article 3 the 6 in a series about the Demographic shift Model – a an essential concept in populace education, i beg your pardon is extended in Social research studies courses, many notably AP person Geography.
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Stage 2 that the Demographic transition Model (DTM) is identified by a quick decrease in a country’s fatality rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total population of a nation in phase 2 will certainly rise because births outnumber deaths, not due to the fact that the birth price is rising. The to decrease in death rate is frequently attributed to significant improvements in as whole health, specifically accessibility to pediatric care, i beg your pardon affects the life expectancy of the many at-risk demographic group — children. But along with an easy healthcare, an expanded education system, gender equality, and technological advances in the locations of food production and also sanitation additionally work come decrease the death rate.
The change to phase 2 is tho a reasonably recent phenomenon in person history. Not until the Industrial transformation did the an initial countries make the change from phase 1 to phase 2. Since the mid-20th Century many of the world’s countries have not just made it right into Stage 2, however have additionally continued to development to step 3 and also 4. Still, there space a number of countries that continue to be in phase 2 the the Demographic transition for a selection of social and economic reasons, including much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and also Afghanistan.
Demographic shift Model phase 2 situation Study: Afghanistan
In 2013, Afghanistan had one the the greater rates of natural increase (birth price minus death rate; or net increase) in the people at 2.7% – much greater than any other main Asian nation. Data detailed from the populace Reference Bureau had the Afghan birth rate at (35/1000) and the death rate at (8/1000). What is most significant here is the the death rate in Afghanistan is low and also it proceeds to decline. Only a decade ago the fatality rate to be over 20/1000, peaking roughly 2004. This fast reduction in the death rate is amazing to demographers because although life span has climbed quickly, one of the primary indications of a lowered fatality rate (child mortality) continues to be high. Afghanistan currently has the highest possible rate of boy mortality in the world, whereby one in ten children do no live pass the age of 5. Why then the diminish in fatality rate? as whole public wellness has considerably improved, and even though the boy mortality rate is tho high it is one improvement, together is the increased access to food and sanitation the has permitted adults to live longer. Quite remarkable for a nation that has experienced so much war throughout the very same time period.
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Looking past the numbers of birth and also death rate brings the discussion earlier to the Demographic shift Model’s emphasis on progress. Choose Afghanistan, many countries in stage 2 room categorized together “developing.” The rates of birth and also death are both the cause and also effect that social and political factors within a country. Afghanistan has experienced years of war both internally, and externally, and also this has actually had far-ranging impacts on the all at once health and also health treatment system of the country. With continued innovation to both, the meant outcome established by the DTM is a transition into phase 3 wherein total populace growth continues, but at a lower rate. The DTM go not carry out a time table for transition, but the big gap in between the birth and also death may signal the the country is nearing the end of phase 2. For that transition to occur, Afghanistan will need to address outstanding social and also economic determinants that bring about lower bear rates, most notably in the areas of education and also the standing of women. Afghanistan has a very high illiteracy price and restricted educational avenues for women, both signs towards a high birth rate. Without either of those worries being addressed, the country will stay in phase 2, with a high price of population growth. If the present growth rate continues the total populace of Afghanistan is meant to double in just 25 years.
Demographic shift Model blog series: Overview, stage 1, stage 2, phase 3, phase 4, phase 5